2020-07-16 17:21:00
Mint Covid Tracker

With 968,876 confirmed cases so far, India is the third worst-hit country in the pandemic, while the death toll of 24,915 is the eighth worst. Worryingly, the trajectory of deaths is still rising at a fast pace. Unlike the curves of some other badly-hit countries, India’s trajectory has yet to peak or stabilize.

India accounted for nearly 14% of the 1.29 million new cases confirmed globally in the last seven days. This was the third highest share after the United States (30%) and Brazil (16%). Of the nearly 29,200 deaths recorded globally in this period, India accounted for 11%—also the third highest share.

Active cases, which now stand at 331,146, have risen at a daily average rate of 2.7% and deaths at 2.3% over this week, based on seven-day rolling averages. While the growth rate for active cases has risen over the previous week, deaths have slowed down marginally. The recovery rate has been rising steadily. Nearly 63%, or 612,815, of India’s coronavirus patients have now recovered, as compared to 53% a month ago.

Globally, the coronavirus case count has crossed 13.5 million, with close to 585,000 deaths, and over 7.5 million (55%) recoveries. Among all countries with more than 10,000 fatalities, India has the worst weekly growth rate in cases, and at its current pace, could cross the 1.5 million mark by the end of July, a Mint analysis shows.

Earlier this week, Tamil Nadu overtook Gujarat in the covid-19 death count, and now has 2,167 deaths. Only Maharashtra and Delhi have a higher toll, and the top three states have a 67% share of the national death count. Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal crossed 1,000 deaths this week, while Gujarat (2,079 deaths) is now recording a very slow pace of increase.

Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have the highest number of active cases, and together have 57% of them. Karnataka reached the third spot aided by its own surge as well as the high recovery rate in Delhi, which is now the fourth on the list. Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are also likely to surpass Delhi soon.

In the last seven days, Assam, Karnataka and Bihar have reported the biggest percentage jumps in deaths, while the surge in active cases has been led by Bihar, Karnataka and West Bengal. This data is based on seven-day rolling averages, which minimize the effect of volatile and delayed reporting.

Among the states with at least 50 deaths, the trajectory of the rise in the toll is getting steeper for Karnataka (928 deaths), where the number has risen nearly 90% over the past week. The figure is 51% for Andhra Pradesh, though the state still has fewer than 500 deaths.

The case fatality rates—or the number of patients who died—are the highest in Gujarat (4.7%), Maharashtra (4%), and Madhya Pradesh (3.5%).

The fresh case-load in southern states is led by Bengaluru, where confirmed cases are now nearly two times than a week ago—the biggest spike by far among the 15 top cities in terms of population. In general, large cities continue to be disproportionately affected by the coronavirus. Delhi has 113,470 confirmed cases and 3,487 deaths as per latest data. Chennai (101,175), Mumbai (96,470 cases), Pune (44,202), and Hyderabad (34,090) are the other major hotspots.

These five cities account for 41% of confirmed cases and 48% of deaths nationally. The top 15 cities together account for 50% of confirmed cases and 63% of covid-related deaths in India. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise data compiled by howindialives.com, as of Wednesday evening.

The case fatality rates—or the number of patients who died—are the highest in Gujarat (4.7%), Maharashtra (4%), and Madhya Pradesh (3.5%).

The fresh case-load in southern states is led by Bengaluru, where confirmed cases are now nearly two times than a week ago—the biggest spike by far among the 15 top cities in terms of population. In general, large cities continue to be disproportionately affected by the coronavirus. Delhi has 113,470 confirmed cases and 3,487 deaths as per latest data. Chennai (101,175), Mumbai (96,470 cases), Pune (44,202), and Hyderabad (34,090) are the other major hotspots.

These five cities account for 41% of confirmed cases and 48% of deaths nationally. The top 15 cities together account for 50% of confirmed cases and 63% of covid-related deaths in India. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise data compiled by howindialives.com, as of Wednesday evening.

In the past week, deaths have risen in Bengaluru and Kanpur by 141% and 37% respectively—the fastest increase among all metros with at least 50 deaths. Among the top 15 cities, the case fatality rates are the highest in Ahmedabad (6.4%), Mumbai (5.7%) and Indore (5.0%), and the lowest in Hyderabad (0.1%), Nagpur (1.0%) and Lucknow (1.3%).

The Mint Covid Tracker runs every week in the print edition. For daily updates to the tracker, click here

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