The lows are good, but where’s the peak?
India is the third country to hit a million reported covid-19 cases. Among the three, it has taken the longest, 114 days, to get there since reporting 10 deaths (Chart 1). Further, adjusted for population, India’s count of reported covid-19 cases and deaths is the lowest among the set of 10 countries with the highest caseload, though India is also near the bottom in testing (Chart 2). More worryingly, India’s curve of new cases is on a rising trajectory, and is showing no sign of bending mildly and temporarily (like the US in the middle), let alone decisively (like Italy and the UK). Where India’s peak might be, and how far away, remains a huge concern.