2020-06-27 11:02:00
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The death toll has reached 15,685 after growing 5.3 percent over the last two days. This is slower than the growth in the preceding 48-hour period when it went up by 6.3 percent.

So far this week, cases have gone up 20 percent and deaths by 15 percent, similar to the rate of growth in the previous five-day period.

The death count in India has nearly doubled in the last seventeen days. The number of infections is now twice what it was nineteen days ago, and if it continues to rise at the same rate, could hit the 600,000 mark in five days.

The continuing rise in cases poses a severe challenge for India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health system.

Over the past few weeks, new infections and deaths have been rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. The country’s death toll is the eighth worst in the world. Among countries with more than 5,000 deaths, India has recorded the second biggest spike in deaths and the biggest jump in confirmed cases over the past week.

Maharashtra now has 7,106 deaths, and Delhi’s toll has risen to 2,492. Gujarat is next on the list with 1,771 deaths, followed by Tamil Nadu (957), and Uttar Pradesh (630). These five states have recorded 83 percent of all covid-related deaths in India so far. Deaths have surged the most in Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, and Karnataka in the last seven days. Gujarat’s toll has been rising much slower than other badly-hit states.

The case fatality rates vary widely. Five states have a higher fatality rate than the national average of 3.1 percent – Gujarat (5.9%), Maharashtra (4.7%), Madhya Pradesh (4.3%), West Bengal (3.8%) and Delhi (3.2%). Out of them, only Maharashtra has reported a significant increase in active cases (18%) over the past seven days. Active cases have declined in Gujarat and West Bengal during the period.

It is worth noting that data quality on cases and deaths vary across countries and regions because of factors such as differences in testing standards, and in protocols being followed for recording covid-related deaths.

Maharashtra has 65,844 patients still under treatment, the most in the country, followed by Tamil Nadu with 32,308 active cases and Delhi with 27,657. Uttar Pradesh is fourth on the list with 7,346 active cases and Telangana is fifth with 6,730 cases. Out of the 197,387 active cases in India as of Saturday morning, the top five states together have 70 percent and the top ten states account for 84 percent. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

As many as 295,880 patients (58%) have now been discharged in India.

Among the ten states and union territories with the most active cases, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu have seen the highest percentage spike over the past seven days. In Telangana’s case, the jump in active cases may simply reflect a reporting effect. Telangana had seen a slowdown in testing earlier. But the number of tests went up significantly after courts intervened in the matter.

Among districts, Chennai, Thane, Mumbai, Pune, and Hyderabad have seen the biggest jump in confirmed cases in the last two days. Hyderabad’s two-day spike of 19 percent was the biggest in percentage terms. These five districts account for 42 percent of the new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days are Kancheepuram in Tamil Nadu, Palghar and Aurangabad in Maharashtra.

District-wise data for Delhi are unavailable and hence not part of this list. The national capital (77,240 cases) now has more cases than Mumbai (72,171).

Source: MoHFW, state health ministries, and national/regional publications

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Source: MoHFW, state health ministries, and national/regional publications
Source: NDMA, state health ministries, and national/regional publications

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Source: NDMA, state health ministries, and national/regional publications

So far, at least 409 districts have had deaths in the country. Mumbai (4,110 deaths) has reported the most deaths among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (1,396) in Gujarat, Thane (804) in Maharashtra, Chennai (731) in Tamil Nadu, and Pune (703) in Maharashtra. These five districts account for 60 percent of deaths in the country.

Kolkata (354) in West Bengal, Solapur (250), Aurangabad (235) and Jalgaon (211) in Maharashtra, and Indore (210) in Madhya Pradesh are the other districts with the highest tolls. The top ten districts account for 70 percent of all the deaths nationally. The number of coronavirus infections is likely to keep increasing in the coming days, as India’s testing numbers continue to grow. According to the Indian Council for Medical Research, nearly 8 million samples have been tested so far, including 220,479 on Friday.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 9.8 million, with more than 490,000 deaths, and more than 4.9 million recoveries (50%).

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